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COULD JAPAN HAVE WON THE PACIFIC WAR?

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  • COULD JAPAN HAVE WON THE PACIFIC WAR?

    Might be of interest <grin> - http://www.francispike.org/main.php?mode=6&p1=G

    There is no such thing as certainty in the outcome of war. The conquest of Japan and its forced acceptance of unconditional surrender by the United States were very far from being certainties in 1941. Given the isolationist background to American sentiment in the interwar years, any reasonable observer, the Japanese included, would have assumed that America did not have the will to fight a major war involving the conquest of a country as expertly and fully armed as Japan at a distance of 6,000 miles. In the mid-1930s America’s likely commitment to fight a war on such a scale, and at such as distance, was diminishingly small. It was a view on which Japan gambled and lost. To the surprise, possibly even of the Americans themselves, it turned out that they did have the will to fight. With a vast underutilised economy behind it, which prevented any diminution of living standards, America sustained its will to win to the end. However it was far from being the inevitable outcome that is sometimes supposed.

  • #2
    Interesting, but Japan could never have won the Pacific War. While the US Army was very small in the 1930's, the officer corps was top-notch and highly trained. This, plus the Reserves and National Guard, helped handle the expansion starting in 1940. As an aside, even in 1933 the US Army was able to handle quickly mobilizing, processing, housing and providing for about 300,000 young men in the newly-formed Civilian Conservation Corps.

    The Air Corps also had a fine school system, training officers in the latest concepts of employing airpower.

    The situation was much the same in the US Navy and Marine Corps. The officer corps was highly-trained and able to handle the expansion.

    Agree the Japanese should have put more resources into submarines and the ability to build merchant ships. They simply couldn't afford it.

    The Japanese would have done well to look at recent history. The USA stood by during World War I and watched until they believed the nation was threatened. From a virtual standing start, the USA mobilized, trained, equipped and fielded a large Navy and Army, which tipped the balance against the Germans within eighteen months after the American declaration of war. Should that war have gone into 1919, the US military machine would have been powerful enough to have gone all the way to Berlin. In 1941 the US was a quantum leap more ready than they were in March 1917.

    The Japanese would also have done well to gauge American sentiment against them. Most Americans didn't like the Japanese, for various reasons. They didn't like the stories coming out of China. And no way in hell would they have allowed the Japanese to possess the Philippines, let alone Hawaii.

    An alternate history mini-series that deals with the effect of a successful Japanese takeover of Hawaii is the two-book set by Harry Turtledove. Days of Infamy deals with the conquest of Hawaii and the initial US response. End of the Beginning describes the US recapturing Hawaii, and by inference eventually dropping the nukes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

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    • #3
      So even that has the only real way for Japan is for the U.S. to give up. Also I don't know why it assumes logistics are such a big deal for the U.S. and not for Japan. The U.S. is sitting on all the resources it needs at this time, whereas Japan has to seize and hold a lot of area to get it's resources. And as soon as war is declared Japan is looking at a merchant shipping deficit, as it doesn't have the shipping to supply itself even in peace time. Taking Hawaii (while trying to hold China and taking the East Indies) was too much for Japan.

      As for the massive U.S. build-up, the war against Japan was largely a naval war and a large naval build-up was already in progress. Not hard to see that coming at all.

      Anyways, the argument that "no war is inevitable" and "the U.S. should have quit" isn't convincing.

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      • #4
        Short of Godzilla rising from the deep and wreaking havoc on every major US coastal city, Japan is going to lose.

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        • #5
          The only winning move is not to play.


          Have the Japanese get their resources from elsewhere and things change. They can ignore the American Oil Embargo and do their thing in China.

          But they're ultimately going to fail. Japan at this time has no centralized, ordely leadership. They need a decent game-plan.

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          • #6
            Perhaps the US would be less angry if they didn't hit Pearl Habour.

            Chris

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            • Otis R. Needleman
              Otis R. Needleman commented
              Editing a comment
              Not really. The Philippines, Wake Island and Guam were also attacked and invaded. Americans don't take such things lightly.

          • #7
            The Japanese were hoping to make it to costly for the US and there Allies to fight the Japanese Empire like the Did when they fought Russia in the Russian Japanese War .

            Comment


            • Otis R. Needleman
              Otis R. Needleman commented
              Editing a comment
              Unfortunately for Japan, the USA was made of much different stuff than Tsarist Russia, and the Japanese ended up getting their dicks knocked in the dirt.
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